A question for all you NS members...

F

ferrinski86

Member
i know most of you probably dont care but as you are all probably aware the feds cut interest rates 3/4 of a point today thus causing the market to close up +400.

now, does anybody see the market actually sustaining and going up or do you think its going to tank pretty soon. i mean it keeps going down and the government keeps pumping money into it. its sort of like a failing business, you can pump all the money you want into it but its still going to fail.

give any insight you may have.
 
i lay all blame on judge thomas penfield jackson whose idiotic ruling on the microsoft antitrust case back in 2000 led to the eruption of the dot-com bubble and its subsequent downfall from which we still have not yet recovered.
 
I saw a political cartoon like three years ago that I thought was a good metaphor. It was when Greenspan was still head of the Fed. It showed him kneeling next to a car with a punctured tire, labeled "Economy." He was trying to fill up the tire with an air can labeled "Rate Cut" and had about ten empty cans behind him. There was a nail that I think said "9/11" in the background. You could make a big list of what the nail would be today, but you get the idea. Wow, I feel lame that I just told a cartoon.
 
We're really just forestalling economic downfall. The US economy has been kept artificially too high for too long, and its just a matter of time before the European or Asian markets take over. Instead of begrudgingly accepting its fate and slowly dieing out like a yellow dwarf, America has to be a fucking red giant and expend everything it can to keep itself burning, until it collapses in on itself in one big explosion.

For those of you who I lost with that analogy, expect inflation to start eating away at everything you own. Now is the time to really consider moving to Europe.
 
we need to finally say "fuck you" to cheap asian labor and force all american companies to move their factories to mexico by tariffing the shit out of everything thats not assembled/manufactured in north america.

protectionism seems to be helping and not hindering the EU. time to steal their playbook.
 
People don't realize how bad inflation is really getting in America. For the first time in history, there was a moment when the Canadian dollar was worth more than the American Dollar. No offense Canada, but that really shouldn't have happed that quickly. The Canadian economy has been increasing, and ours is just going straight to the shitter. When I was a kid, the U.S. dollar was seriously worth 1.30 CD. WTF.
 
Look at what happened to Bear Stearns. These institutions are propping up the economy with a bubble that is ready to send us tumbling down like a house of cards. One of the largest investment banks in the world that was trading at $160 a share last year just got sold for $2. That says something.
 
The US is about to go the way of the Roman Empire.

The oil infrastructure we rely on will kill us in the end.

This upcoming recession is nothing compared to what the future will hold.

 
Looks like a pretty short term strategy to me..there is potential to compound the real underlying issues..
 
The downfall of capitalism: it can fail...if there is no safety net, the economy of a country can go into ruins. Th Canadian economy is not really suffering. I hope more trades overseas are developped in canada.

 
The reason Canada isn't stalling as bad as the US-

-They have a stronger manufacturing sector per capita. The US does a lot of manufacturing, but so much of it has been outsourced and a lot of what we still produce is shit that nobody wants- Ford/GM vehicles, etc.

-Canada has a lot of mining and oil/gas weath that are helping its economy as of right now.
 
this is super depressing. and everyone seems to be saying the same thing. what kind of time frame do you have in mind?
 
oh yeah, sorry.

time frame is in the next couple of months.

so my question is "what do you think the market will do between now and a few months?"

today the DOW is already dropped today about 140 points from yesterdays fed rate cuts.

but it goes up and down everyday but just getting peoples take on the subject.

 
Hard to say due to the extreme manipulation the Fed, Govt. agencies, and leveraged players use to influence the course. They can make the bubble bigger and bigger if they want but it just makes the eventual correction more severe, and then its just a matter of people realizing that the bubble is there that determines timing of collapse. People seem to notice and it looks like we're running into a brick wall here.

Round and round we go, musical chairs long as the music flows, when it stops nobody knows, but we hope it doesn't cause we dunno know where the chairs left to go.
 
Those checks are just a retarded effort by GWB to give the economy a temporary boost when elections roll around because McCain doesn't fare well on the economic issues that come up in hard times. It would be better for him if we had TERROR and lots of MONEY. But yea the rebates aren't going to do shit for us. People will probably just be pissed that they don't get their tax refund next year after the advanced money is gone. Infact its kinda like the government is just loaning us money that they owe us in the future...
 
You realize that this 'rebate' is just an advance on our tax returns for next year, right? So think about it, it will slightly boost the economy, but probably not too much because so many people are in debt they will pay back those loans instead of actually buying stuff. This will certainly have an impact, but not nearly as much.

THEN flash forward a few short months. The economy is not much better, its tax season AGAIN but this time you will get way LESS money back from your taxes, because your tax return from the previous year (2008, this year, the rebate stimulus package) came out of next years return. So you will get way less money from your returns, so people will spend even less money, and they wont have any extra money to boost an already hurting economy. Thus, it will just make things worse.
 
see i always agreed with you about the rebate but the IRS website says it wont affect your 2007 or 2008 tax refund.

"It's an economic stimulus payment that more than 130 million households will receive starting in May. It's not taxable, and it won't reduce your 2007 or 2008 refund or increase the amount you owe when you file your 2008 return."

straight from the IRS website.

what i dont understand is how they are getting the money. if i am missing something important let me know. haha
 
Hmmmm that's interesting. I had my dad call our tax consultant and they told us that it was coming out of our returns for next year. But ya, if the money isn't coming out of our pockets, then it is coming out of the governments in the form of less tax money income. That in turn would probably hurt the economy just as much because of how much the gov't spends.
 
i agree with you and your dad.

my income tax professor said it would be coming out of our next years rebate as well. i would rather believe my professor (and your dads accountant) over the governments word. haha
 
i'm going to go out on a limb here and say from your taxes.

these "rebate checks" are just like being on welfare....except we had to pay into the system first.

and your "normal rebate" isn't anything special either (if you quality, overpaid, or have a shrewd enough CPA to get one). just an interest free loan you gave to the government out of the kindness of your heart.
 
Yeah its scary, but what can we do? I guess it just has to run its course... There is no reason we (younger folk) need to get into a panic over it. America does live in a dream world, and soon enough we will have to wake up and face reality. And pumping more money into the economy is going to do nothing long term. It really kills me how this country has outsourced all of its labor, so sad.

 
I'll tell you what needs to happen-

All alternative energy patents currently in existence need to be deemed public domain by emergency legislation. Whoever owns these patents will get a one time gov't payment of 20X or 100X (something along those lines) what they paid for it and anyone will be allowed to start producing legitimate alternative energy vehicles, power supplies, etc and capitalizing on it. The way things are now with oil companies owning alternative energy patents nothing will change until oil is depleted and the world economy is ruined in a depression like the world hasn't seen since the dark ages.

People have no idea how bad things could get if drastic changes aren't made very, very soon.
 
i've been waiting to reply to this thread all day since i saw it in personal finance this morning.

the government is hoping to boost our economy, when they lower the intrest rate, it makes loans more available to people, which makes us pump more money into our economy.

and i mean you all worry that our economy will fail.

jsut look to history for evidence, the stock market crashed in 1929, we rebounded form that, yes it took time and lots of time but we came back. its the panic, people are afraid to buy stocks becasue the prices are falling but in fact right now is the perfect time to buy safe good company stocks. the stocks will eventually rise back up to a higher price, but people are jsut so scared. and liek what someone else said buy commidities, you can live without buying that rolex or new car but everybody buys toilet paper and food. even in times of crisis you need those everyday things.

someone said our economy hasnt been this bad since WWII and I mean, it shoudl be. the way people spend money they dont have, easy credit

all of theese examples happend to the US before, read a US history text book sometime, it will amaze you how many similarities there are, and they all turned out fine

yes the economy going down the hole right now, it will come back out
 
Ahha! But the creation of these new loans weakens the dollar because you are just pumping tons of them into the system. This week alone the Fed had pumped hundreds of billions of excess credit into circulation. Stocks may go up, in dollars, but a big part of it is just that the dollars are worth less so it takes more of them to value a company. Since the Fed was created in 1913, the dollar has lost 96% of its value. Gold is now $1000 an OUNCE, oil is $100 a barrel. I remember when it was $350 an ounce and $15 a barrel and I'm just a kid....cause it was only a couple years back. Have people's salaries increased by 150-700%? Of course not, we're getting fucked.

The only people left with money in a crash are the megarich and bankers, especially now as everyone "has" money in the banks through check cards and such. But the bank doesn't actually have money to pay you with if everyone needs theirs at the same time, and they won't. Then the Rockefellers, Morgans, and Rothchilds of the world buy everything up at pennies on the dollar. INFACT, whose company was it that bought Bear Stearns a few days ago for less than the real estate value of their headquarters? JP Morgan, who profited IMMENSELY from the depression era as well. Hell they even robbed the people who invested wisely and bought gold, making it ILLEGAL to own.

You have no idea what the bottom looks like. It is a slow slide into oblivion. Check the charts from the depression era. Suckers rode that thing all the way to the bottom, always hoping it was gonna head back up soon. They ended with nothing.

1929crash.jpg


After MANY YEARS it did, but there are differences between now and then. For one it took more than 20 fucking years and the end of World War II to get back to the level they were at (but not really even that soon cause by then the dollars the exchange was measured in were worth significantly less anyway). Secondly, we actually had a manufactering base back then. People were employed making real goods, or farming the land. What the fuck are fast food employees and other people employed in useless jobs gonna do in a crash?

The US has NEVER entered a recession when it has NEGATIVE SAVINGS. Wtf do you do when you're in debt and don't even have assets to cover it, or have even saved any money to feed your family during hard times going into a recession?

I have a feeling this is gonna be painful for alot of people.
 
i recant my statement. i received my "economic stimulus payment notice" in the mail.

it states:

"For individuals who normally do not have to file a tax return, the new law provides for payments to individuals who have a total of $3000 or more in earned income, Social Security benefits, and/or certain veterans' payments. Those individuals should file a tax return for 2007 to receive a payment in 2008."

"Even if you pay no income tax but have a total of $3000 or more in earned income, Social Security benefits, and/or certain veterans' payments, you may receive a payment of $300."

if you don't pay any income tax or even file a tax return, some politicians weaseled in a way for you to get more free money. what the fuck?
 
We will go back up at some point it's just a matter of ending war and foreign oil dependancy. At least that's what I think and I may be wrong and get pwn3d by the politically active NSers.
 
I know I'm coming in late on this one, but here it goes anyway.

If people actually looked at what happened today when the fed cute rates they would know the real story. The fact is that the Fed was planning on cutting rates 1 point today but instead cut them back only 3/4 of a point. This gave many investors better confidence in the market because it showed that the Fed had the confidence in the market to lower the rate cut. This help the market considerably today driving down the price of commodities like gold (which people invest in when they don't have confidence in the market) and oil. The dollar also rose significantly today against both the Euro and the Yen.

The collapse of the housing bubble was inevitable and should have been seen coming, regardless the biggest way it has hurt the economy isn't the money that investors or banks lost because of it, it's the doubt that the collapse placed on the market making people sell in mass. In short the best way to fix the economy is to BUY BUY BUY! seriously.

 
Define buttloads. Are you talking about ANWR? I hope you realize that's only enough oil to supply the united states for six weeks.

As far as I'm aware of, we don't have any truly substantial amounts of oil left in the US.
 
haha prepare to get pw3d

plus if you would be so kind as to show me a source for your claim of "I hope you realize that's only enough oil to supply the united states for six weeks."

id really appreciate some credibility (source) to that claim, thanks..

also i never said ANWAR

Colorado and Utah have as much oil as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq,

Venezuela, Nigeria, Kuwait, Libya, Angola, Algeria, Indonesia, Qatar

and the United Arab Emirates combined.

That's not science fiction. Trapped in limestone up to 200 feet thick

in the two Rocky Mountain states is enough so-called shale oil to rival

OPEC and supply the U.S. for a century.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the two biggest U.S. energy

companies, and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are spending $100 million a year

testing new methods to separate the oil from the stone for as little as

$30 a barrel. A growing number of industry executives and analysts say

new technology and persistently high prices make the idea feasible.

"The breakthrough is that now the oil companies have a way of getting

this oil out of the ground without the massive energy and manpower

costs that killed these projects in the 1970s," said Pete Stark, an

analyst at IHS Inc., an Englewood, Colo., research firm. "All the shale

rocks in the world are going to be revisited now to see how much oil

they contain."

The U.S. imports two-thirds of its oil, spending $300 billion a year,

or 40 percent of the record trade deficit. Every $10 increase in a

barrel of crude costs an American household $700 a year, according to

the Rand Corp., founded in 1946 to provide research for the U.S.

military. Oil prices have risen 63 percent since 2004, and higher fuel

costs have slowed growth in the world's largest economy to the lowest

in four years.
http://www.deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,660227927,00.html

 
why are we worried about buttloads of oil? in 5-10-15 years we will successfully implement alternative energy sources out of necessity. you know what we won't have buttloads of? water. potable water.
 
not really.. the economy was suffereing a liquidity crisis, cutting the fed funds rate increses solves that problem.

Also opening up the discount window to securities companies - not just banks - (it only took them like 10 years to do so!) helps with liquidity prolems as well. If Bear had been able to borrow overnight this could have all been avoided.
 
they were talking the other day about drilling in the great salt lake, but the quality of the oil is supposed to be very crude, and will take a lot of refining compared to other sources of oil. is that true for the whole region or just the gsl?

 
I read that article and I thought was really interesting. There was also an article in TIME about a New Mexico company that is using algae to produce oil. Pretty ingenious stuff.
 
it will never cease to amaze me what we can create....... that being said, we need to get off the dick of foreign oil.... we cant perfect this technology fast enough.. so we need to become energy independent and at the same time look for a lasting solution
 
It is going to fail, because we have tryed to control it over the years... when we should have used the ideas of jon locke and let the economy run itself, for the most part
 
i saw that too, and thought it was pretty cool. to see people working to produce long term solutions for this problem is promising, especially when all that has been done to this point is produce hybrid cars that do more damage to the environment during their production than benefits during their use, and are simply a way for sumg ass dicks to pretend to care about the environment.

 
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