Weather models suck

Monsieur_Patate

Monsieur_Patate

Active member
I don't really pay close attention to weather forecasts outside of winter snow predictions, so not sure if it's snow specific but I find the snow total forecasts to still be very unreliable, and that's frustrating when trying to plan a trip. Almost 2020 and we can't do better than a 1 to 3 range 24 hours out? That's just sad.

Not blaming the forecasters, I know they work with the tools they have, but those models just suck ass. Until the storm actually hits, there is just no way to know where and how much will dump. Snow-forecast is about a reliable as a cheesecloth condom, opensnow is a bit better but mostly because more conservative so their estimates tend to be less volatile, and they give a wide range, so of course it tends to be less precise than Snow-forecast so less error-prone, but not necessarily more accurate.

Opensnow has local forecasters trying to make sense of it all and give their own daily forecast, which is the best resource available online imo, but still not very reliable, they flip-flop a ton in the 48-72 hours leading up to a storm both regarding amounts and location, which sucks if you want to plan things ahead, gotta be flexible until the last minute if you want the deepest pow.

And from what I hear g5 will somehow mess with our forecasting system so we can expect forecasts to get less and less reliable.
 
Weather is unpredictable at times, Evan Thayer (wasatch snow forecast, on opensnow now) is pretty good at hitting utah predictions, but you cant reasonably expect to plan a trip around a weather forecast, its just not possible.
 
Coming from my experiences working in resorts around peoples ski trips.....Most of the people who have terrible times on their ski trips (removing all their personal issues) are the ones who plan a trip around "storms" rather than conditions/amount of skiing and end up being in a pissy mood because their champagne powder pipe dream never came to be. Dont be that guy.

If you luck you and get some good storms then more power to you.....But I wouldn't plan a trip around it. Western US weather cycles are not like japow where its gonna snow 20" in 1 hour
 
When I went to Jackson in mid-January last season, there hadn't been a storm in weeks. The locals I chatted with on the lifts were constantly complaining about the conditions and just seemed kind of pissy. Coming from the East Coast, I was stoked to just ski a real mountain on the doorstep of a National Park. Because there hadn't been snow in weeks, lift lines were non-existent. (The tram line was 15 minutes at most).

It's just skiing bros, make the most of it.
 
I'm just stating the fact that weather models are not that great at accurately forecasting the weather. Everyone seems to agree, you can't accurately forecast the weather. We're all on the same page.

This is an area with huge potential for improvement in the future.
 
14081479:DeebieSkeebies said:
Coming from my experiences working in resorts around peoples ski trips.....Most of the people who have terrible times on their ski trips (removing all their personal issues) are the ones who plan a trip around "storms" rather than conditions/amount of skiing and end up being in a pissy mood because their champagne powder pipe dream never came to be. Dont be that guy.

If you luck you and get some good storms then more power to you.....But I wouldn't plan a trip around it. Western US weather cycles are not like japow where its gonna snow 20" in 1 hour
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You're missing my point. My point isn't that you should be miserable because the models couldn't accurately predict but that there is no point in planning a chase a few days in advance, it needs to be a less than 12 hours out decision with our current weather science, but even then it's all a gamble in my experience.

I'm also surprised the forecasting accuracy isn't more advanced by now, I think it's an area with huge potential for improvement that also touches the entire population, this isn't niche so I'm surprised we have not more accurate weather forecasting by now.

**This post was edited on Nov 27th 2019 at 2:35:58pm
 
14081535:Monsieur_Patate said:
You're missing my point. My point isn't that you should be miserable because the models couldn't accurately predict but that there is no point in planning a chase a few days in advance, it needs to be a less than 12 hours out decision with our current weather science, but even then it's all a gamble in my experience.

I'm also surprised the forecasting accuracy isn't more advanced by now, I think it's an area with huge potential for improvement that also touches the entire population, this isn't niche so I'm surprised we have not more accurate weather forecasting by now.

**This post was edited on Nov 27th 2019 at 2:35:58pm
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It's not like people don't research the weather, meteorology is a huge profession and until we invent some new measure device or have some huge tech breakthrough I doubt we'll ever be able to know 100% what the weather will be every day, until we make our own weather.
 
Kinda disagree op. How specific do you want forecasts to be? Yeah they flip flop in the weeks, days, and even hours up to and during a storm. But...

You can certainly plan a trip around a storm. Just don't be pissed when it snows 6" instead of 12". One thing is for sure, if they are making a big fuss about it nuking, then it's pretty sure to be a big storm. Follow all the networks. Watch all the predictions. Know which resorts historically do best regardless. Then plan where you want to go and where has the best odds. I've done this a few times over the past couple years and never been disappointed.

Best odds are to make your decision the day or two before a storm and drive there the night before it hits hardest.
 
Joel on open snow does a really good job with the Colorado forecasts. I always know when the systems are going to come across and where in CO is generally going to get the most snow. For instance, with this last storm they were calling northern CO east of the divide since last week and they ended up getting almost 3 ft in Estes park. If it wasn't November I for sure would have been camping up in RMNP waiting on the storm.

**This post was edited on Nov 27th 2019 at 6:16:39pm

**This post was edited on Nov 27th 2019 at 6:17:06pm
 
14081538:eheath said:
It's not like people don't research the weather, meteorology is a huge profession and until we invent some new measure device or have some huge tech breakthrough I doubt we'll ever be able to know 100% what the weather will be every day, until we make our own weather.
Click to expand...

It will always be easier to create (or rather influence) the weather than to predict it. Even with full time, accurate satellite coverage of temperature, humidity, wind, etc it's hard to predict precipitation accurately
 
Meteorologists have it rough, no one else on earth is expected to predict the future down to the hour/down to the inch of precipitation in every specific region

meteorology is insanely hard and has made crazy progress even in the past 10-15 years, e.g. look at how much tornado warnings have improved. I’m honestly amazed at how good it is in real life but especially after reading about it
 
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