My family is in the oil business, so my father subscribes to some meteorologist emails that provide both long & short term forecasts. Below is wednesday's.
1:45 PM... Wednesday...
WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT ABOUT
1. Excessive, possibly historic, snow totals for parts of VA/MD/DE; extreme coastal flood event possible
2. Heavy snows expand northward into and across Philly / NYC/LI area during Friday with 10 to 15 inch averages; locally to 18 inches
3. Extremely tight snow gradient will exist from north of NYC into southeastern NY & southern CT
4. Coastal CT, extreme southeastern NY about 50 miles north of NYC, southern RI and far southeastern MA/Cape Cod areas most likely areas to see more than 3 inches of snow with some 6 inch totals possible
5. Snow amounts may taper to 1 to 2 inches by the time we get to I-84 corridor in CT...
6. Little or no snow at all possible across far northern CT/southern Massachusetts on northward.
7. No travel issues expected across north of NYC region into or through Saturday morning
8. If travel disruptions do develop across southeastern NY, southern CT, southern RI and southeastern Massachusetts they are most likely late Saturday afternoon / evening
WHAT UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST
1. Some of the modeling continues to suggest moderate to heavy snow will expand across all of southwestern CT northward to about the I-84 corridor with measureable snow to the CT/MA border; this scenario is not supported by the most reliable model and for now is being given less weight.
2. It would only take a 50 mile northward shift in the storm pattern and jet stream flow to have heavy snow overwhelm the vast majority of southeastern NY and Southern New England?
3. Any southward shift would quickly remove the entire area north of NYC from any measureable snowfall
GIVEN THE INHERENT ERROR POTENTIAL WITH ANY 3 DAY STORM FORECAST, NO ONE CAN DISMISS THE POTENTIAL FOR A 50 MILE SHIFT IN THE STORM SETUP OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SO WHILE THE IDEAS STATED ABOVE HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO VERIFY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM'S EVOLUTION EVERY 12 HOURS OR SO TO SEE IF ANY DETECTABLE TRACK SHIFT IS STARTING...
FOR NOW, THE EMPHASIS IS ON THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITH HEAVY SNOW COMING EXTREMELY CLOSE TO COASTAL CT LATE SATURDAY...
NO PLANS SHOULD BE CHANGED OR MODIFIED AT THIS TIME if you live north of NYC...