Granby_killdozer
Active member
14460648:Monsieur_Patate said:The implication is that a lot of firearm homicides were likely prevented while the others remained stable? There was not more homicides from other weapons, it remained stable from the previous years. You didn't even look at the study, did you? Too many words for you I guess.
Look at 1992-2002 for LHS, all the values are close to the mean, it's a low standard deviation, from a statistical perspective it's about as stable as it gets across the entire dataset. And LHS was not on a sustained downward trend either prior to 1992:
View attachment 1050049
The one argument you could make just by looking at the graph here is that RHS was already on a slight downward trend since 1986 (yeah I'm helping you out because you're struggling pretty hard here). To that I'll counter by saying that the trend accelerated following 1996 with the two largest drops registered post-1988. I'd also point you to the other study I previously linked that determined the odds of the drop in mass shootings being due to chance and not the agreement at 1 in 200,000.
Nothing is ever 100% in the world of stats, but based on the data available here, seems pretty likely that the agreement prevented homicides rather than transferred them to another weapon as you suggested.
Additionally, the reason the significant RHS drop didn't impact the overall homicide rate that much like you said is simply because firearm homicides were only a fraction of overall homicides in Australia at the time (only 18%).
Do the same math in the US where firearm homicides account for 79% of all homicides and you're likely to get a more significant overall drop here.
Lastly, Australia had a much smaller problem then that the US does today. Our rate today is 3 times what Australia's rate was in 1990, and that's after years of riding the global downward trend too. That would also contribute to expecting proportionally more lives saved by doing the same thing in the US.
And as a side-note, although you traded horses many times since making your original 'argument' that gun ownership prevents homicides (lol), it is disproved by this use case too, just in case you still had doubts.
My god you are truly a dumb fuck. If the number of firearm homicides went down but the number of over all homicides stayed the same then the number of non-firearm homicides didn’t rEmAiN StAbLE, it went up you dumb fuck