Oil production has already peaked?
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ECfreeski3
Active member
yup
uni-corn
Active member
10.11.2008 London: "World oil production peaked in 2006"
Peak Oil could trigger meltdown of society
According
to a newly published global oil supply report to be presented by the
Energy Watch Group at the Foreign Press Association in London, world
oil production peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a
rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030,
global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply
gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other
fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.
"The
most alarming finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after
peak", warns Jörg Schindler from the Energy Watch Group. This result,
together with the timing of the peak, is obviously in sharp contrast to
the projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA). "Since crude
oil is the most important energy carrier at a global scale and since
all kinds of transport rely heavily on oil, the future oil availability
is of paramount importance as it entails completely different actions
by politics, business and individuals.", says Schindler.
This
cautious energy outlook corresponds with statements made by former US
Defense Secretary and CIA Director, James Schlesinger, who said at a
recent oil summit in Cork: "The battle is over, the oil peakists have
won. Current US energy policy and the administration's oil strategy in
Iraq and Iran are deluded."
However, until recently the
International Energy Agency denied that a fundamental change of energy
supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future.
Hans-Josef Fell MP, a prominent member of the German Parliament, is
clear: "The message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also
be possible in future, sends a diffusing signal to the markets and
blocks investments in already available renewable energy technologies.
Remaining
world oil reserves are estimated to be 1,255 Gb (Giga barrel) according
to the industry database HIS (2006). For the Energy Watch Group (EWG),
however, there are sound reasons to modify these figures for some
regions and key countries, leading to a corresponding EWG estimate of
854 Gb. This oil supply outlook does not rely primarily on
Press
release reserve data which in the past have frequently turned out to be
unreliable. Hence the EWG analysis is based primarily on production
data which can be observed more easily and which are more reliable.
Peak
oil is now. "The oil boom is over and will not return. All of us must
get used to a different lifestyle.", said King Abdullah of Saudi
Arabia, the largest global oil producer. For quite some time, a hot
debate has been going on regarding peak oil. Institutions close to the
energy industry, like CERA, are engaging in a campaign trying to debunk
peak oil as a "theory". However, the EWG report shows that peak oil is
real. The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its
economic system. This change will be triggered by a sharp decline of
fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of daily
life. Climate change will also force mankind to change energy
consumption patterns by significantly reducing the burning of fossil
fuels.
Anticipated supply shortages could easily lead to
disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For
government, industry and the wider public just muddling through is not
an option anymore as this situation could spin out of control and turn
into a meltdown of society.
Peak Oil could trigger meltdown of society
to a newly published global oil supply report to be presented by the
Energy Watch Group at the Foreign Press Association in London, world
oil production peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a
rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030,
global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply
gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other
fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.
"The
most alarming finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after
peak", warns Jörg Schindler from the Energy Watch Group. This result,
together with the timing of the peak, is obviously in sharp contrast to
the projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA). "Since crude
oil is the most important energy carrier at a global scale and since
all kinds of transport rely heavily on oil, the future oil availability
is of paramount importance as it entails completely different actions
by politics, business and individuals.", says Schindler.
This
cautious energy outlook corresponds with statements made by former US
Defense Secretary and CIA Director, James Schlesinger, who said at a
recent oil summit in Cork: "The battle is over, the oil peakists have
won. Current US energy policy and the administration's oil strategy in
Iraq and Iran are deluded."
However, until recently the
International Energy Agency denied that a fundamental change of energy
supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future.
Hans-Josef Fell MP, a prominent member of the German Parliament, is
clear: "The message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also
be possible in future, sends a diffusing signal to the markets and
blocks investments in already available renewable energy technologies.
Remaining
world oil reserves are estimated to be 1,255 Gb (Giga barrel) according
to the industry database HIS (2006). For the Energy Watch Group (EWG),
however, there are sound reasons to modify these figures for some
regions and key countries, leading to a corresponding EWG estimate of
854 Gb. This oil supply outlook does not rely primarily on
Press
release reserve data which in the past have frequently turned out to be
unreliable. Hence the EWG analysis is based primarily on production
data which can be observed more easily and which are more reliable.
Peak
oil is now. "The oil boom is over and will not return. All of us must
get used to a different lifestyle.", said King Abdullah of Saudi
Arabia, the largest global oil producer. For quite some time, a hot
debate has been going on regarding peak oil. Institutions close to the
energy industry, like CERA, are engaging in a campaign trying to debunk
peak oil as a "theory". However, the EWG report shows that peak oil is
real. The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its
economic system. This change will be triggered by a sharp decline of
fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of daily
life. Climate change will also force mankind to change energy
consumption patterns by significantly reducing the burning of fossil
fuels.
Anticipated supply shortages could easily lead to
disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For
government, industry and the wider public just muddling through is not
an option anymore as this situation could spin out of control and turn
into a meltdown of society.
Itsbackfliptime
Active member
How did it peak though? We aren't using all of our oil resources at all. We could be drilling offshore, in Alaska, getting oil from shale, etc. So how have we peaked?
lloyd_christmas
Active member
while i voted for mccain i fully support obama and really do wish him well/think he'll do just fine, but if you think he is the magic answer to this problem you're kidding yourself man.
oh, and yeah our production peaked already and our discovery rate peaked in like the 30s or something; we might be in trouble. ethanol is awful energy in vs. energy out so that won't solve the problem. hopefully we have some good people working on this, and fast.
oh, and yeah our production peaked already and our discovery rate peaked in like the 30s or something; we might be in trouble. ethanol is awful energy in vs. energy out so that won't solve the problem. hopefully we have some good people working on this, and fast.
jholer2
Member
we've already peaked because people are actually getting smart about how bad global warming actually is. just because we've peaked doesn't mean we immediately stop using it. it just means people are using less per day or year or whatever than we used to. its pretty much a bell curve, no oil was used at all like 200 years ago and in like a hundred years or so there won't be any oil left.
bermbuster49
Active member
...they better leave some god damn oil for my dirtbike. i feel like we are just going to use it up till its gone and then be like, oh shit...now what do i do?
lloyd_christmas
Active member
i said "think he'll do just fine"
bush has nothing to do with it...the energy crisis just simply isn't going to fix itself because obama is in the white house. it's going to take years of research and a totally new method of harnessing energy sustainably. yeah, he may help to fund it or whatever, but if he had all the answers we wouldn't have the problem, man.
bush has nothing to do with it...the energy crisis just simply isn't going to fix itself because obama is in the white house. it's going to take years of research and a totally new method of harnessing energy sustainably. yeah, he may help to fund it or whatever, but if he had all the answers we wouldn't have the problem, man.
lloyd_christmas
Active member
"it" being his effect (or lacktherof) on my confidence in obama, smart ass. fuck off.
Bob_Gnarley
Active member
WTF does this have to do with oil production? He has done nothing for this country as of yet, so quit praising him like god.
lloyd_christmas
Active member
that i'll give ya
lloyd_christmas
Active member
sorry for the post whore....that last post was directed at jholer2...
and ya bobGnar that's sort of what i was saying before...it's not really his problem to solve, just sort of fund . he's not a geologist. hopefully someone figures it out, though.
but hey, i'm livin large now, gas is like 2.10 just down the street. i should probably go fill up.
and ya bobGnar that's sort of what i was saying before...it's not really his problem to solve, just sort of fund . he's not a geologist. hopefully someone figures it out, though.
but hey, i'm livin large now, gas is like 2.10 just down the street. i should probably go fill up.
MLB
Active member
i don't believe it.....honestly. Shit like this has been going round since the 1980s. Look at the gas prices right now. They have been lower then a dollar for a few weeks now, and im pumped about that. Its not going to stop the way i live. Not even a little bit.
When we actually have gas stations that ethanol fuel for average vehicles, and biodiesel ( which we schould already have, and there is no reason not to..........hell farmers are making their own bio diesel out of fryer greese for years). There are so many ways to run our vehicles besides gasoline. Im not worryed.
When we actually have gas stations that ethanol fuel for average vehicles, and biodiesel ( which we schould already have, and there is no reason not to..........hell farmers are making their own bio diesel out of fryer greese for years). There are so many ways to run our vehicles besides gasoline. Im not worryed.
ECfreeski3
Active member
dude, vehicles are only a tiny fraction of our lifestyle that depends on oil. just about everything you buy and use every day depends on oil. you cant just "not believe it."
BASS_PRO_SHOP
Active member
i rub oil on my dick just for the fun of it.
MLB
Active member
sure i can.....i know diesel fuel powers air craft, trains, transport trucks.....everything.
But honestly, stuff like this comes up so often. There are so many different opinions about peak oil. People said that peak oil was going to happen in the 1970s, other people said the 1990s....nobody really knows.
Thats the answer, even the experts don't know. With new exploaration technology, and some new wells being discovered......nobody can tell. Hell with new directional drilling techniques old wells are being reopened.
Yes we need to start implimenting new forms of technology. Hell many countries already have, norway already have hydrogen powered vehicle, and fueling stations.
So i can honestly say, from a stand point of how many articles have been printed on peak oil, that i don't believe this article this one article. When all of the worlds new sources comes together, and officialy says that peak oil has arrived, then i will believe it.
Its not going to stop me living my life.
But honestly, stuff like this comes up so often. There are so many different opinions about peak oil. People said that peak oil was going to happen in the 1970s, other people said the 1990s....nobody really knows.
Thats the answer, even the experts don't know. With new exploaration technology, and some new wells being discovered......nobody can tell. Hell with new directional drilling techniques old wells are being reopened.
Yes we need to start implimenting new forms of technology. Hell many countries already have, norway already have hydrogen powered vehicle, and fueling stations.
So i can honestly say, from a stand point of how many articles have been printed on peak oil, that i don't believe this article this one article. When all of the worlds new sources comes together, and officialy says that peak oil has arrived, then i will believe it.
Its not going to stop me living my life.
KjellEllefson
Member
yeah or try 100-140 miles
but w/e
but w/e
whattheshit
Active member
its true.
for instance they are already pumping water into the largest oil reserves in saudi.
water is typically used after a well has reached its peak to boost pressure below ground.
saudis won't ever reveal how much oil they have remaining. that is guarded under the basis of national security.
for instance they are already pumping water into the largest oil reserves in saudi.
water is typically used after a well has reached its peak to boost pressure below ground.
saudis won't ever reveal how much oil they have remaining. that is guarded under the basis of national security.
cobra_commander
Active member
gas is still so incredibly cheap, you won't see change until it becomes financially responsible to do so. Oil is still by far the cheapest source of energy with relatively little negatives. Take for example ethanol, same environmental impact as gas (your still burning a carbon). yet it does not provide the same efficiency in miles per gallon, as well as driving up food prices world wide (increase in hunger related deaths).
Sure you can go buy your hybrid prius which gets 48 miles to the gallon. your current car gets 20 miles to the gallon, you could sell it for $2000, the prius costs $22,000(stock) so how many miles would you have to drive to make up that $20,000? well right now gas is at $2.50 nationally, but lets even go with the $4.00 a gallon is was a few months ago, shit lets just say it was $5.00 a gallon. well 20k/5 is 4000, so you would have to consume 4000 gallons of gas to make it worth while. at 48 mpg that means it would take you 192,000 miles to pay off the prius. The average american drives 12,000 miles a year. It would take you 16 years to pay off the difference based on gas (at $5.00 a gallon).
Take the chevy volt, $40,000, can get infinite miles per gallon, no gas charge (only your electrical bill, and electricity usually comes from burnign coal) so say it cost $0 to run the car. say you get 20mpg in your current car, at 12,000 miles a year and $5.00 a gallon. it costs you $3,000 a year in gas to drive. so that makes it just over 13 years before the volt pays for itself, (this assuming you never drive more then 40 miles in one go, and have time to charge the battery)
Oil is still by far the cheapest energy out there. And as long nothing becomes cheaper, oil will be what the world operates on.
Sure you can go buy your hybrid prius which gets 48 miles to the gallon. your current car gets 20 miles to the gallon, you could sell it for $2000, the prius costs $22,000(stock) so how many miles would you have to drive to make up that $20,000? well right now gas is at $2.50 nationally, but lets even go with the $4.00 a gallon is was a few months ago, shit lets just say it was $5.00 a gallon. well 20k/5 is 4000, so you would have to consume 4000 gallons of gas to make it worth while. at 48 mpg that means it would take you 192,000 miles to pay off the prius. The average american drives 12,000 miles a year. It would take you 16 years to pay off the difference based on gas (at $5.00 a gallon).
Take the chevy volt, $40,000, can get infinite miles per gallon, no gas charge (only your electrical bill, and electricity usually comes from burnign coal) so say it cost $0 to run the car. say you get 20mpg in your current car, at 12,000 miles a year and $5.00 a gallon. it costs you $3,000 a year in gas to drive. so that makes it just over 13 years before the volt pays for itself, (this assuming you never drive more then 40 miles in one go, and have time to charge the battery)
Oil is still by far the cheapest energy out there. And as long nothing becomes cheaper, oil will be what the world operates on.
cobra_commander
Active member
oh, and the other thing about gas, it can be used anywhere.
you don't need sun, you don't need wind
A little bit ago Germany put big incentives out there for people and companies to put solar panels on their roofs. Sounds good right? well what really happened is a bunch of people bought solar panles to put on roofs in one of the most sunless countries out there. Since it increased the demand for solar panels and thus silicon, it caused the price of silicon (and thus solar panels) to go up, making it more expensive, and less economically effective, for places that actually get sun, to use solar energy.
So think about it, if you buy solar panels for your house that gets relativly few days of sun a year, are you actually being enviormently helpful? All your doing is making it more expensive to put solar panles up where they are most effective. (If you live in places that get alot of sun by all means do so)
you don't need sun, you don't need wind
A little bit ago Germany put big incentives out there for people and companies to put solar panels on their roofs. Sounds good right? well what really happened is a bunch of people bought solar panles to put on roofs in one of the most sunless countries out there. Since it increased the demand for solar panels and thus silicon, it caused the price of silicon (and thus solar panels) to go up, making it more expensive, and less economically effective, for places that actually get sun, to use solar energy.
So think about it, if you buy solar panels for your house that gets relativly few days of sun a year, are you actually being enviormently helpful? All your doing is making it more expensive to put solar panles up where they are most effective. (If you live in places that get alot of sun by all means do so)
Tasche
Active member
Lets clear up some stuff
1) Peak oil refers to production no consumption.
2) The US production peaked in the 80's or 70's depending on who you talk to. Gulf coast and Alaska prospects will never be able to match the production we had in Texas and Cali.
3) Peak oil has nothing to do with original oil in place (OOIP) which is a measure of the total oil in the ground. The difference is between Resources, which are physically in place, and reserves, which are economically recoverable. Using this difference someone could say that there is approx. 8 billion barrels in western colorado. Why are we not using that? Because it has the consistency of tar and can not be produced right meow.
4) The electric car competed with the internal combustion engine and lost out. With an electric car you need massive battery storage. Battery storage life has an exponential decline curve and looses its ability to hold a charge after about 1 and 1/2 log cycles from first decline. Also the motor will loose power as the battery declines in charge and thus go slower even comically slow.
5) Due to the invention of a catalytic converter burning gas is pretty environmentally friendly. However the batteries required to drive a prius require massive open pit mining and transportation, and ore processing. A recent study came out that a Hummer H2 actually has a smaller "carbon footprint" than a prius. So anytime some snob tries to tell you that their prius is good for the environment tell them to fuck off. Plus they will have to replace their batteries in 5-10 years.
1) Peak oil refers to production no consumption.
2) The US production peaked in the 80's or 70's depending on who you talk to. Gulf coast and Alaska prospects will never be able to match the production we had in Texas and Cali.
3) Peak oil has nothing to do with original oil in place (OOIP) which is a measure of the total oil in the ground. The difference is between Resources, which are physically in place, and reserves, which are economically recoverable. Using this difference someone could say that there is approx. 8 billion barrels in western colorado. Why are we not using that? Because it has the consistency of tar and can not be produced right meow.
4) The electric car competed with the internal combustion engine and lost out. With an electric car you need massive battery storage. Battery storage life has an exponential decline curve and looses its ability to hold a charge after about 1 and 1/2 log cycles from first decline. Also the motor will loose power as the battery declines in charge and thus go slower even comically slow.
5) Due to the invention of a catalytic converter burning gas is pretty environmentally friendly. However the batteries required to drive a prius require massive open pit mining and transportation, and ore processing. A recent study came out that a Hummer H2 actually has a smaller "carbon footprint" than a prius. So anytime some snob tries to tell you that their prius is good for the environment tell them to fuck off. Plus they will have to replace their batteries in 5-10 years.
zues
Active member
you are 100% correct.
The U.S. Government is making it seem like there is plenty of oil left, but really we need to start thinking about alternative fuel sources NOW. In a book i'm reading called "The End Of Oil" The author makes it clear that the peak of oil production hit in 2005, and its now a downward curve. Saudi Arabia does not have all that much oil left.
You know there can't be much oil left when:
The world uses 1000 barrels of oil A SECOND
The united States spends 640 billion dollars annually on IMPORTED oil.
Saudi Arabia is pumping its wells with water.
The U.S. Government is making it seem like there is plenty of oil left, but really we need to start thinking about alternative fuel sources NOW. In a book i'm reading called "The End Of Oil" The author makes it clear that the peak of oil production hit in 2005, and its now a downward curve. Saudi Arabia does not have all that much oil left.
You know there can't be much oil left when:
The world uses 1000 barrels of oil A SECOND
The united States spends 640 billion dollars annually on IMPORTED oil.
Saudi Arabia is pumping its wells with water.
seeingstars
Member
exactly
and as for the electric car, the car companies simply deemed it better economically to continue to make cars that ran on internal combustion engines, even if they were paid off by oil companies, it was still a better deal.
as for priuses some of them are almost due to get batteries replaced and some scientists believe that just the chemicals in the batteries alone are so corrosive that they're worse for the environment than a hummer. Let alone the ridiculous amount of mining and transportation of the materials.
and as for the electric car, the car companies simply deemed it better economically to continue to make cars that ran on internal combustion engines, even if they were paid off by oil companies, it was still a better deal.
as for priuses some of them are almost due to get batteries replaced and some scientists believe that just the chemicals in the batteries alone are so corrosive that they're worse for the environment than a hummer. Let alone the ridiculous amount of mining and transportation of the materials.
whattheshit
Active member
i got my info from this book called 'the upside of down'
good stuff.
good stuff.
zues
Active member
that is your opinion though. If you do a little research, you will see that even geologists and oil industry anylists are saying the peak is over. it is now on the down curve, sure new technology may help a little bit, but it bigger drills don't do all that much.
And for biodisel. You must take into account that biodiesel is made via non renewable resources. Therefore it is somewhat innefecient. Oil is used in the process of making biodiesel.
And for biodisel. You must take into account that biodiesel is made via non renewable resources. Therefore it is somewhat innefecient. Oil is used in the process of making biodiesel.
cobra_commander
Active member
bingo. people arn't happy when their thirsty.
seeingstars
Member
you honestly think that technology will not be good enough at that point with reverse osmosis and tablets and personal filtration systems and mass filtration and treatment systems and distribution systems that we will actually fight over it? The earth is like 75% water
