so here are my predictions, hopefully i will be better than last year, wasnt too bad, but definitely not perfect. also have to hide my fandom a little bit more in predictions, always overestimated my favourite teams.
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AFC EAST:
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1 patriots
2 bills
3 jets
4 dolphins
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--90% certain---
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feel kinda confident with this division, i see some trends continuing that started over the last few years and this is the result.
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obviously, the patriots are the favourites and despite their protection issues in the preseason, they will win this division. their defense will be a better unit. it has arguably one of the best linebacker crews now and has versatile guys all over the front 7, which will allow belichick to throw the weirdest stuff at his opponents (just like on offense) without substitutions.
the bills look good and were a solid team before a few key injuries (dline and RB) really hurt them. they might have the best dline in the afc now, and this usually goes a long way.
the jets havent improved, imo. their tebow package/experiment will only lead to the fans screaming for sanchez' head after the first bad games.
the dolphins? wont touch that topic.
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AFC NORTH:
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1 ravens
2 steelers
3 bengals
4 browns
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--50% certain---
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tough division to predict, this could really be the year where the ravens and steelers end their perennial contender status and the bengals come through, but for now, i will stick with this.
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the ravens will look good but will struggle to generate pressure. they relied a lot on suggs and he masked some of their inefficiencies. look no further than the SD game from last year to see what happens when suggs is taken out of the game (SD used a TE to chip him on EVERY snap). offensively, i am not sold on flacco. not at all.
steelers, although they wanted to shore up their oline via the draft, look like they have still issues protecting big ben. he is always hurt and obviously can play through a lot, but at some point he will miss games. their offense will struggle and their defense is not what it was. polamalu might be the most overrated player in the league. he freerides on every play and that led to two scores in the wildcard loss to denver.
bengals are one of those upcomers who just continued to follow their strategies but they either take this division or finish third. REALLY solid defense, just lacking firepower on either side of the ball.
the browns wont go anyway. weeden and richardson will have to carry a lackluster squad and they wont be able to do so. they have some top-notch players (haden, jackson & thomas), but there is so much air inbetween.
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AFC WEST:
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1 chargers
2 broncos
3 chiefs
4 raiders
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--30% certain---
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impossible to predict anything. obviously, i am a chargers fan, but the broncos and chiefs (less likely the raiders) will give them a good run for the money. imo, the deepest division in football, featuring 4 playoff-caliber teams. a lot of people are ready to hand the broncos the crown already, but lets not forget that manning played in a mediocre division for most of his time in IND and we have to wait and see how he does in this tough division (even though it lacks a superbowl contender).
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although i am a fanboy, i honestly think the chargers can go places. they have a lot of players returning on defense when they allowed the fewest yards in the league (2 years back) and rely now on three number one picks (ingram, liuget, english) to cause some problems for opposing offenses. with phillips, johnson, barnes, english and ingram, they might feature one of the deepest OLB rotations in the league, essentially turning one of the biggest problems over the last few years into a position of strength. on offense, rivers has to regain his form. i see a slight problem with his arm though, as he constantly underthrows receivers on deep balls (recent example the pick against DAL). he was such an effective deep passer a few years ago and i cant help but wonder if there is any medical problem. their oline looks scary (in the negative way) and hopefully they can get that fixed. i really like their rungame though. ronnie brown and mathews will have some running room behind mcclain, who was another important addition. they really lack top-notch players at defense, but if they play like 2 years back, noone will care.
the broncos, who knows. i think mannings targets are obviously worse than what he had in IND, but you never know. he is such a good player and will continue to lighten it up if he can stay on the field. the oline was a perfect fit for tebow, whom they protected for MINUTES on some occasion after he initially escaped the pocket towards the sidelines. the defense is also a question mark to some extent, but they played awfully well last year over most stretches, so it would be unfair to criticize that.
the chiefs. they really could be the best team in the division. they get a lot of starters back and have such a great talent at RB with charles. really dont like hillis. he wont do much damage and tbh, i cant even see him getting a lot of balls, but who knows. all the chiefs fans say something like "we get these pro bowl players back" (charles, berry) & "we get our starters back" (moeaki, cassel) who missed a lot of time last year. but its not that easy. the packers had what? like 15 people on IR during their super bowl run? but they were a worse team imo when they got all these guys back. football is not just adding piece after piece and everything will work out. the pieces have to form a team and we wont see how this works out until we see some games.
the raiders. they have this awesome speed at DB, WR and RB. but look at their front 7. they arent playing a 3-4, its effectively a 7-0. teams with speed at TE and RB will hurt them. and palmer is not the answer. idk if i saw a legit game from him last year/this preseason, but i am not sure he is worth all the picks they gave up.
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AFC SOUTH:
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1 texans
2 titans
3 jaguars
4 colts
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--80% certain---
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seems like a shoe-in, especially the first two spots and the last two, although the teams could switch places on both ends.
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the texans look a lot like the 49ers. which is good, in case you were living under a rock the last 12 months. their defense is good and while its hard to follow such an impressive season up with another one, they are just a good team overall. i predict a little dip from their offense, with johnson seemingly dinged up all the time and foster wont carry this team all the time. they missed to pair johnson with another quality receiver and will pay the price after a full offseason of preparation by the solid defenses of the titans and jaguars.
the titans are tough to predict. with britt and johnson healthy, they could do anything they want with an above-average defense having their backs. they really could topple the texans, but they also could find themselves at 3 or 4.
the jaguars have a good defense and maybe blackmon gives them anything to keep opposing defenses from keying in too much on MJD. but gabbert wont give them too much this year.
the colts, we all know how bad they were in all phases. apparently, luck is the real deal, but they are small all over the field and other teams will punish them. their defense was build to play with a lead, let mathis and freeney loose and not allow a big play with their speed. but right now (like last year), there wont be too much leads and i honestly dont know how mathis and freeney will play as OLBs. they are pass rushers and everytime you drop one of them, you lose effectiveness. you cant bring 5 people on every snap either, so we will see this "double demarcus ware" system fail.
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so thats it for the AFC. i will try to analyze the NFC later today. but right now there is a fantasy draft coming up. i really appreciate if you guys read it/comment on it or not, do whatever you want. mostly, i am just doing it for me personally, so i can see what i thought prior to the season and see if i predicted ANYTHING right.