La Nina

PacificRimJob

PacificRimJob

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Looking pretty strong this winter...

I dont know much about this kinda shit other than its seemingly overblown?

Whats the outlook - and I mean globally - for this kinda thing?
 
Trying to base snowfall outlooks off La Niña or El Niño is typically very hit or miss. You can go back into weather records and try to find other La Niña years and see what snowfall was then in a given location, but that’s about as close of a comparison as most “real” weather folks do.
 
I read something the other day that basically said there is no historical evidence that La Nina vs. El Nino has never had any statistically significant predictive power for snowfall, I'll see if I can find a link

I'm just hoping that after an absolute shitshow of a year in general, that the snow gods will bless us with lots of pow this season to make up for the rest of 2020
 
14185184:DayMan said:
I read something the other day that basically said there is no historical evidence that La Nina vs. El Nino has never had any statistically significant predictive power for snowfall, I'll see if I can find a link
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Yeah, I feel like thats absolutely true... I mean, at least the last time there was a seemingly strong La Nina event, it absolutely nuked in California - a place where La Nina is supposed to avoid sending storms due to a more northerly jet stream?

I feel like the years that have been generally "meh" lately have been super weak neutral events where the sea surface temps are just kinda at around average...

The only time El Nino really produced in a place where I lived was when it was absolutely sending storms into California and stuff back literally 20 odd years ago... Hence the Chris Farley Meme...
 
You’re correct with the more north jet. But that’s just a probability. So that jet comes down a bit or hangs a few cold fronts farther south that tap some pacific moisture and Cali gets in on it.

The biggest thing that the few winter weather nerds really look for are those high pressure blocking patterns. You get a strong ridge/high set up in the wrong place it’s no good. Bump that ridge East or west a bit and then it’s a green light for snow (sometimes lol)

I follow long range GFS and Euro forecasts that are all online and free. It gives a good look and idea for us “amateur weather folk” and always gives me hope and something to follow and track a week or 2 out

14185192:DingoSean said:
Yeah, I feel like thats absolutely true... I mean, at least the last time there was a seemingly strong La Nina event, it absolutely nuked in California - a place where La Nina is supposed to avoid sending storms due to a more northerly jet stream?

I feel like the years that have been generally "meh" lately have been super weak neutral events where the sea surface temps are just kinda at around average...

The only time El Nino really produced in a place where I lived was when it was absolutely sending storms into California and stuff back literally 20 odd years ago... Hence the Chris Farley Meme...
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14185241:SkiBum. said:
I follow long range GFS and Euro forecasts that are all online and free. It gives a good look and idea for us “amateur weather folk” and always gives me hope and something to follow and track a week or 2 out
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Yeah, where actually do you find those at?
 
It's about trends and probabilities in sciences like this.

In the NW the trend is for cooling and more moisture. If it doesn't stick exactly to that it's still following a trend overall. Overall dryness and less precip in other areas but still getting about average snowfall
 
14185544:sqeellicbic said:
Any "prediction" this far out is nothing but a guess.
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bro but its not lol. science isn't a yes or no answer most of the time. why people get this wishy washy answers. Yes it's a prediction but it's based on a model and that model is based on thousands of hours of work and historical data. so yes it's a prediction but it's a lot better than the my bones saying its gonna snow today lol
 
Let's just hope it's a record season 10/11 repeat... man I still get chills thinking about that season. 550"-600" everywhere around northern colorado, yum.
 
14185636:.nasty said:
Let's just hope it's a record season 10/11 repeat... man I still get chills thinking about that season. 550"-600" everywhere around northern colorado, yum.
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Damn i can’t believe it’s been that long, all I remember is I was about 7 skiing 30 inches of pow at beaver creek and just tomahawking all over the place, what a day.
 
14185721:OregonDead said:
get bigger skis op. lol it is gonna be deep ?
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Lol I have a pair of 127mm wide nordicas. They were simply too wide for most japan pow days last season. Im hoping they will be too narrow this year...
 
14185632:Bakerpow said:
bro but its not lol. science isn't a yes or no answer most of the time. why people get this wishy washy answers. Yes it's a prediction but it's based on a model and that model is based on thousands of hours of work and historical data. so yes it's a prediction but it's a lot better than the my bones saying its gonna snow today lol
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The confidence in any of these "predictions" are extremely low. Forecasting more than 10 days out only has 50% confidence. Trying to predict what the upcoming winter is gonna be like during the summer is a guess. Yes, these long range forecasts are based in science, but the confidence interval is so low it means basically nothing.
 
Everyone stay the fuck away from the UP and Bohemia. It's gonna be a terrible season don't come. You will have a shitty time, go out west.
 
14185922:sqeellicbic said:
The confidence in any of these "predictions" are extremely low. Forecasting more than 10 days out only has 50% confidence. Trying to predict what the upcoming winter is gonna be like during the summer is a guess. Yes, these long range forecasts are based in science, but the confidence interval is so low it means basically nothing.
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I'll still take that confidence interval all day over one saying its a 85% chance a el nino hits the NW....
 
Put simply, the ENSO cycle (El Nino/La Nina) is determined by the water temperature difference off the coast of Peru. El Nino means that the water is warmer, causing the jet stream to move further south over the Pacific. La Nina is the opposite. Meteorological systems often form and follow the jet stream.

El Nino would means more snow in California/Nevada and La Nina means more snow in the Pacific NW/BC.

It is only an statistical indicator, so you should not ONLY use this for your seasonal forecast.

The effect of the ENSO cycle is mainly felt on the West Coast.

There is a bunch of other climatic oscillations you could use as indicators.

Seasonal weather forecasts are often shit
 
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