The only person who has any shot in hell at beating Gavin Newsom is Kevin Faulconor, and even that is a TALL order in California where the majority of voters are like my parents and grandparents - 55+ or even 75+ age group, and aligned with the democratic party ever since the 1960's cultural revolution. There are a lot of Republicans in California, but they have shrunk to about 1/3rd of the electorate, and have very little power at any level in the state. Faulconor isnt even the mayor in SD anymore, and a Latino Democrat now holds that office. It's actually pretty unprecedented how poorly the GOP does in California.
In any case, even in the extremely unlikely case that Faulconor was installed via recall, he would be different than the GOP candidate of the rest of the country, just as Arnold was. You cant win in California on the bullshit qanon agenda, you'll just get absolutely stomped into oblivion anywhere that's not Kern or Lassen County, or the other Alabamas of the state.. That said, California democrats will successfully push narratives making Faulconor seem more right wing than he really is, and it will lose him a lot of traction in the contest - especially if a qanon candidate actually gets involved and siphons off votes in the Jeffersonian separatist parts of the state..
Right now, Newsom is trending very well. They've given out nearly 30 million vaccines, and half of those are now fully vaccinated people. As long as Californians continue to take on vaccine appointments, and the amount of people who are fully vaxxed continues to expand, then they will be able to continue re-opening things in the state and the situation will get better.
as for Jenner.. they are only doing this because their stupid reality show got cancelled and they want to remain relevant since they have nothing better to do - again, sounds like the someone who's name shall not be spoken.