How much do you trust the weatherman?

derbski

derbski

Active member
I am going on spring break next wednesday to bozeman montana. The ten day forecast is saying warm weather and possible rain. Please tell me that both wunderground.com and weather.com are both completely inaccurate once they get past 5 days, and pray for snow.
 
I think I'd rather just listen to a cracked out homeless guy tell me than GONNABEASICKPOWDAYBROSKISWINDSMAYEXCEED500NAUTICALMILESANHOURBUTGETUPHERENAOW-resort reports or actual weather professionals.

But if they have tits, I'm tuning in.
 
I think you might be kinda boned. Right now, utah is moving into another cycle of high pressure for the next week or so and possible storms to come through in the last week or so of march but other than that, might wanna strap on the park skis and grab your hoodie, its gonna be warm.
 
I've learned that "5 to 7 inches of new snow accumulation possible" means 2 inches on a good day.
 
well your better off in the states than we are in canada...we got a brand new doppler radar in whistler for the olympics that was supposed to stay, and then fucking vail bought it from us
 
Here's how much faith to put in forecasts...

1-3 days out -

High level of confidence. Might not be nailed, but there won't be any huge misses.

4-5 days out -

Mid-level confidence. Likely not to see any HUGE changes, but the system dynamics and specific impacts can be adjusted (ie. a storm's track could shift enough to limit impacts).

6-7 days out -

Low confidence. Overall trends are in place with regards to temperatures, and high and low pressure systems, but specifics are impossible to nail this far out and WILL be adjusted as the forecast moves to 4-5 days out.

8-10 days out -

Extremely low confidence. Temperature trends can be evident, but beyond that, I would not lend much credence to the fact that one long-range forecast model predicts rain at 10-days out.

Also, keep in mind that the Weather.com forecast for Bozeman is not going to be the same as the forecast for on-mountain at higher elevation.
 
I trust (with a grain of salt) Goel Gratz. He seems to be the most accurate with snow that I've seen and will tell you when he himself isn't confident in his forcast.
 
stay away from weather.com, they're shit. Look at the main local weather stations. and that guy w/ the skull pic pretty much got it. I've seen 2-4 inch predicitons for the wasatch ended up being like 14 inches, sometimes they predict 12-18 and it's like 3, even the day before the storm. Hell, sometimes the valleys get same if not more snow than mtns.

Utah weather.
 
joel is the shit. everybody who lives in co or part of ca use opensnow.com

...although the site appears to be down, it is the best powder predictor and he gives a great write up letting you know when and where the best snow will be. such a legit dude and site.
 
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