Forest Fires Will Be Very Bad This Year

ReturnToMonkey

ReturnToMonkey

Active member
I wrote this in response to [tag=242938]@Jems[/tag] post in the rant thread about this summer's forest fires being less severe than last. Let me start by saying I don't mean to fearmonger. I only want to increase awareness. I do not anticipate most individuals will affected much more or less than the last couple of years.

Last summer's forest fires were super bad and this year simply "being better" isn't a good metric. 5%-10% less burn acreage is "better," but it's not significant, especially as it pertains to air and water quality. The PNW looks to be pretty good, but that's it. The SW is already experiencing above normal fires and this is projected to continue. It has been an abnormally dry and windy year, leading to more than two million acres burning across several states this year already. This is 70% higher than the ten-year average. Just look at this picture comparing Jan thru May fire stats for the whole US over the last eight years.

1043100.png

As of yesterday, there are six new large fires, including in Florida and Mississippi. Even humid states are getting affected by droughts. New Mexico has the largest fire in its history already and it's not even summer yet. The short winter and occasional bought of strong precipitation have lead to a lot of plant growth that later dies and dries, providing a lot of fuel. Additionally, the fuel that exists seems to be getting more arid, leading to hotter fires. Despite what it feels like lately, there is a nation-wide drought that is probably not going away anytime soon.

1043107.png

Finally, even if the total fire acreage is less than last year, there is increased risk to humans. There has been a disproportionate amount of population growth in areas most prone to wildfires and their effects. More people are moving to mountains and forests, cities are expanding into the wildlands, and tourism continuous to grow. This places more people and structures in the path of fires and their smoke. Despite increased red-flag warnings and fire awareness, more people camping, hiking, and driving increases the chances of human-started fires. Just see the Superior fire in Colorado last winter, it was started on a red-flag day. Finally, fire itself and smoke aren't the only dangers caused by wild fires. They increase the likelihood of flooding and landslides, increasing the impact on environment and people alike. This is made worse by all the fast and heavy storms that seem to be taking place this year. Flash flooding in general is expected to increase this year. I expect areas impacted by fires from the last several years and this year to be even more prone to flash floods.

TLDR: This will be a scary year for the US and I only expect it to get worse over the next decade. Go check out these sources for a lot more insightful information and some great graphics.
https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn
https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...ok-2022-drought-expand-amid-warmer-conditions
https://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/res...merican-west’s-wildland-urban-interface-areas
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00299-0
https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/pubs/docs/bro/Bro91.pdf
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/04/220401141335.htm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/07/20/dry-thunderstorms-wildfire-west/

**This thread was edited on May 20th 2022 at 4:40:09pm
 
I wrote this in response to @Jems post in the rant thread about this summer's forest fires being less severe than last. Let me start by saying I don't mean to fearmonger. I only want to increase awareness. I do not anticipate most individuals will affected much more or less than the last couple of years.

Last summer's forest fires were super bad and this year simply "being better" isn't a good metric. 5%-10% less burn acreage is "better," but it's not significant, especially as it pertains to air and water quality. The PNW looks to be pretty good, but that's it. The SW is already experiencing above normal fires and this is projected to continue. It has been an abnormally dry and windy year, leading to more than two million acres burning across several states this year already. This is 70% higher than the ten-year average. Just look at this picture comparing Jan thru May fire stats for the whole US over the last eight years.

As of yesterday, there are six new large fires, including in Florida and Mississippi. Even humid states are getting affected by droughts. New Mexico has the largest fire in its history already and it's not even summer yet. The short winter and occasional bought of strong precipitation have lead to a lot of plant growth that later dies and dries, providing a lot of fuel. Additionally, the fuel that exists seems to be getting more arid, leading to hotter fires. Despite what it feels like lately, there is a nation-wide drought that is probably not going away anytime soon.

It feels wet because, yes, there have been a lot of storms. However, they have been moving quickly and violently, due to an atmosphere of turmoil. This brings A LOT of wind. Googling "high winds 2022" shows results from literally everywhere, from SoCal to Maine and everywhere between, claiming winds in the 90th percentile this spring. High winds are extremely bad news and they make fires move unpredictably, ground critical fire fighting aircraft, and correlate to more lightning and less precipitation. I expect a high number of dry thunderstorms this year. They also blow away topsoil and knock over trees. Water evaporates more. Weather is harder to plan ahead for. Wind is truly underestimated as a danger compared to the droughts. Unfortunately, they seem to work together in a destructive nature very well. Especially when you add sparks into the mix.

If you look at this graph, you'll see that the number of fires is actually going down, yet they seem to be getting much worse. Not only is the total burn acreage going up, the duration of the peaks and troughs are longer and shorter, respectively. This indicates big fires that last a long time and are starting earlier or later in the year.

Finally, even if the total fire acreage is less than last year, there is increased risk to humans. There has been a disproportionate amount of population growth in areas most prone to wildfires and their effects. More people are moving to mountains and forests, cities are expanding into the wildlands, and tourism continuous to grow. This places more people and structures in the path of fires and their smoke. Despite increased red-flag warnings and fire awareness, more people camping, hiking, and driving increases the chances of human-started fires. Just see the Superior fire in Colorado last winter, it was started on a red-flag day. Finally, fire itself and smoke aren't the only dangers caused by wild fires. They increase the likelihood of flooding and landslides, increasing the impact on environment and people alike. This is made worse by all the fast and heavy storms that seem to be taking place this year. Flash flooding in general is expected to increase this year. I expect areas impacted by fires from the last several years and this year to be even more prone to flash floods.

TLDR: This will be a scary year for the US and I only expect it to get worse over the next decade. Go check out these sources for a lot more insightful information and some great graphics.
 
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Dude yeah.

Whenever people tell me they’re excited for the summer time, I always jokingly say “Yeah I miss those 40 degree heat waves and seeing our skies covered in a blanket of wildfire smoke”

One of the small towns a few hours east of Vancouver had completely burned down during last summer’s heatwave. A place called Lytton.

And just like you said, wildfires increase the likelihood of flash floods and landslides. Fast forward to Autumn when that Atmosheric River hit, that poor little town was flooded.

And to top it off, I’m pretty sure it’s really difficult for homeowners in wildfire prone areas to buy home insurance. Things are only going to get worse from here if we don’t change our ways. Scary but realistic.

It’s also going to hit hard when it starts effecting our ski seasons for the worse. It already has. Saw some photos posted from a local guide in Whistler of the Horstman Glacier receding after the heat wave. That one hurt to see for sure
 
I was looking at the global map a few days ago and yeah there’s so much of the U.S. already burning and it will just get worse.
 
Now is a good time to hire someone to cut trees near your home to reduce the chance of it burning.

Coincidentally, I will travel anywhere in the US to do exactly that ?
 
Wildfires aren't as gnarly as they were half a decade or more ago, big issue is now people live in areas with natural fire cycles, and have tried to suppress fires for years. So we see this increase of pretty hot burning crown fires that previously might just have been ground or midstory burn throughs
 
14438586:Lonely said:
Wildfires aren't as gnarly as they were half a decade or more ago, big issue is now people live in areas with natural fire cycles, and have tried to suppress fires for years. So we see this increase of pretty hot burning crown fires that previously might just have been ground or midstory burn throughs
Click to expand...

It sounds like you're contradicting yourself saying fires used to be gnarlier, then described how current ones are so gnarly.

Fires now are just much larger and dangerous. In part due to human activities both providing more fuel and placing more lives and structures in the way. But it's also because the west has been in a decades long drought that increases the aridity of the fuel more every year. In general, it's getting more windy over the years as well. Those reasons are why fires are getting bigger and stronger.
 
14438600:ReturnToMonkey said:
It sounds like you're contradicting yourself saying fires used to be gnarlier, then described how current ones are so gnarly.

Fires now are just much larger and dangerous. In part due to human activities both providing more fuel and placing more lives and structures in the way. But it's also because the west has been in a decades long drought that increases the aridity of the fuel more every year. In general, it's getting more windy over the years as well. Those reasons are why fires are getting bigger and stronger.
Click to expand...

Sorry, maybe that was a poor choice of words. Forest fire used to burn much much much more acreage historically than they do now. Most of this seems to consist of a lower density of high temp crown fires and a higher density of lower temp midstory and ground fires.

The acreage that burns every year is still drastically less than what it was, but the key thing is it tends to be in areas that humans now live in that were empty 100 years ago, and also are high temp crown fires which are more destructive to both human structures and the forest. Wooden houses filled with chemicals, parked cars, and other human structures contribute to the problem when those burn.

Again, most of these areas have natural 5/10/20 year fire cycles. Many species of trees have evolved to either encourage fires or survive it. When you suppress a fire cycle for half a century...you no longer get low burning fires over a large area, you get really hot crown fires popping up.

But the people who say that more is burning now than in the past are just completely wrong. The type of fire has changed, and we have seen an uptick, but nowhere near as much land is getting burnt as 60+ years ago.

1043140.png

**This post was edited on May 21st 2022 at 1:40:17pm
 
But honestly, maybe we should consider not building towns or cities in areas that have strong fire cycles, or are literally deserts. Human hubris always comes back to bite us when we try and fuck around with the enviroment
 
14438610:Lonely said:
But honestly, maybe we should consider not building towns or cities in areas that have strong fire cycles, or are literally deserts. Human hubris always comes back to bite us when we try and fuck around with the enviroment
Click to expand...

Why the northeast will always be the superior region imo.
 
Fire season is great because it's kinda like winter seasonal depression, but instead of the days getting short and cold making you not want to leave the house, the days are long and hot and smokey making you don't want to leave the house but you also don't have a functional air conditioning system so it's 85 degrees in the house.
 
Right now it's 2019 vibes in the northern half of Montana; this has been the coldest spring since that particularly cool spring/summer. I'm hoping there is rain into July like in that year. I enjoy the heat but I really wouldn't mind another mild summer in regard to heat and smoke like 2019.
 
14439506:_Garagely_ said:
Right now it's 2019 vibes in the northern half of Montana; this has been the coldest spring since that particularly cool spring/summer. I'm hoping there is rain into July like in that year. I enjoy the heat but I really wouldn't mind another mild summer in regard to heat and smoke like 2019.
Click to expand...

Dope. Where you at in Montana?
 
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