Fall forecast calls for average snowfall (Summit County Colorado)

Valind

Valind

Active member
spacer.gif


SUMMIT COUNTY — Warmer than average temperatures

reigned through the end of September, marking a temperature trend that

persisted throughout the past 12 months.

The average daily high

in Dillon was 68.2 degrees, almost two degrees above the historic

average (66.3 degrees), based on records going back to 1909.

The historic average daily low for September is well below freezing, at 28.7 degrees.

But this year’s lows for the month averaged to 34.1 degrees, as measured by Denver Water for the National Weather Service.

The

local trend is in line with several climate-change models that predict

warmer night time temperatures in the mountain region, a trend with

serious implications for snowpack, runoff and potentially even for

snowmaking operations at ski areas in the region.

The high temperature for the month was 77 degrees (Sept. 1).

The mercury climbed into the 70s frequently (17 days), and there were only three days when it didn’t hit 60 degrees.

On

the low end, the Dillon station didn’t see a frost until Sept. 18. The

coldest temps came Sept. 26-28, with a low of 25 degrees on all three

nights.

Precipitation at the Dillon observation site was near

normal in September, 1.4 inches, as compared to the historic average

1.34 inches.

October is one of the driest months of the year,

with average precipitation totaling only 1.07 inches, although the

month often sees the season’s first significant accumulation of snow,

with an average 7.7 inches of the white stuff.

Weather statistics for Breckenridge were not available as of Sept. 2.

Seasonal outlook

Most climate models are showing development of mild La Niña conditions.

That

cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific makes it

tough to predict snowfall for Colorado. Generally, the emergence of La

Niña means that Colorado should be headed for a near average winter

season in terms of precipitation.

The Climate Prediction Center is

calling for above-normal temperatures through at least December across

all but the very norther reaches of the state.

Perhaps continuing through the winter if La Niña conditions persist.

The

bottom line shows a continued tendency toward dry conditions in Arizona

and eastern Colorado, with a good chance for near-normal snowfall in

the mountains of Colorado, according to climatologist Klaus Wolter.

If

the La Niña weakens, it may allow for more fall and winter moisture in

Arizona, New Mexico and eastern Colorado, all areas afflicted by an

on-going drought, Wolter concluded in a forecast posted on the National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website (www.cdc.noaa.gov).
 
and i just move to CO from where the PNW where there are already winter storm warnings...knock on wood for CO
 
The reason the sea surface temps are looked at in the Eastern and Western Pacific is because it can also indicate the low and high pressure systems that set up in those areas. off the coast of peru, if the sea surface temps are colder than normal, that means that deeper, colder water has surfaced due to prevailing strong winds pushing the existing surface water away and allowing the deeper water to rise. These types of high pressure systems set up along the coast of Peru and can be watched by looking at sea surface temp maps. When high pressure sets up along peru's coast, low pressure tends to set up in the western pacific and the surface water temps are warmer than usual in SE Asia near Indonesia. Storms spin off that large low pressure system and the high pressure systems off the coast of peru block them so they are pushed to the north and ultimately will slide across the Pacific Northwest US. This is called a La Nina.

The opposite scenario has high pressure in the Western Pacific and Low Pressure off the coast of Peru. That low pressure system will spin storms off that coast and they tend to hit the southwestern US. This is called El Nino.

Out of every 5 years, 2 of them tend to be El Nino or La Nina.
 
Just my local newspaper.

www.summitdaily.com under the news tab on the left. I am not too sure how credable it is. The paper is kinda small and sucks half the time, maybe that's why it's free.
 
WOW, i meant to quote you but I dunno how I did that other guy.

BUT, anyway, I think I would trust your post more from accuweather to be honest
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top