CROSS YOUR FINGERS 4 LA NINA

E

enick

Active member
seriously could be a fucking awesome winter!!!

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP

5 August 2010

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Spanish Version



Synopsis: Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.

During July

2010 La Niña conditions developed, as negative sea surface temperature

(SST) anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern equatorial

Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices decreased with values less than -1.0oC in Niño 1+2, 3, and 3.4 regions at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to reflect a deep layer of below-average temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific (Fig. 5).

Enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level

westerly winds continued over the western and central equatorial

Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect

the development and strengthening of La Niña conditions.

Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue through early 2011 (Fig. 6).

However, there is disagreement among the models over the eventual

strength of La Niña. Most dynamical models generally predict a

moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the statistical model

forecasts indicate a weaker episode. Given the strong cooling observed

over the last several months and the apparent ocean-atmosphere coupling

(positive feedback), the dynamical model outcome of a moderate-to-strong

episode is favored at this time. Therefore, La Niña conditions are

expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere Winter

2010-11.

Expected La

Niña impacts during August-October 2010 include suppressed convection

over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over

Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States

are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere summer and early

fall, but strengthen considerably during late fall and winter. Also, La

Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by

decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical

Atlantic Ocean

snowsnownosnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnowsnow

 
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP

9 September 2010

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Spanish Version



Synopsis: La Niña is expected to last at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.

La Niña strengthened during August 2010, as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reached at least -1oC across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of the month (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices cooled to between –1.3oC and –1.8oC by the end of August (Fig. 2). Consistent with this evolution, the subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) decreased further, reflecting the additional cooling of sub-surface waters east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5).

The pattern was associated with the continuation of enhanced low-level

easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds over the

western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and

atmospheric anomalies reflect the strengthening of La Niña.

Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue at least through early 2011 (Fig. 6).

However, the models continue to disagree on the eventual strength of

La Niña. Based on current observations and model guidance, we expect

the SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region to either persist near the

present strength, or to strengthen into the winter as is consistent with

the historical evolution of La Niña. Thus, it is likely that the peak

strength of this event will be at least moderate (3-month average

between –1oC to –1.4oC in Niño-3.4) to strong (3-month average of –1.5oC or less in Niño-3.4).

Expected La

Niña impacts during September-November 2010 include suppressed

convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced

convection over Indonesia. The transition into the Northern Hemisphere

Fall means that La Niña will begin to exert an increasing influence on

the weather and climate of the United States. These impacts include an

enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest,

and below-average precipitation in the Southwest and in portions of the

middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Also, La

Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by

decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical

Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook), and to suppressed hurricane activity across the central and eastern tropical North Pacific.
 


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP

7 October 2010

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Spanish Version



Synopsis: La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

La Niña

continued during September 2010 as reflected by the large expanse of

below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the

equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All weekly Niño SST index values were between –1.3oC and –1.8oC at the end of the month (Fig. 2). In addition, the subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) remained below-average, reflecting a shallower-than-average thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5).

This pattern was linked to a continuation of enhanced low-level

easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds over the

western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and

atmospheric anomalies reflect the ongoing La Niña.

Consistent with nearly all of the forecast models (Fig. 6),

La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere

spring 2011. Just over half of the models, as well as the dynamical and

statistical averages, predict La Niña to become a strong episode

(defined by a 3-month average Niño-3.4 index of –1.5oC or

colder) by the November-January season before beginning to weaken. Even

though the rate of anomalous cooling temporarily abated during

September, this model outcome is favored due to the historical tendency

for La Niña to strengthen as winter approaches.

Likely La Niña

impacts during October-December 2010 include suppressed convection over

the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over

Indonesia. The transition into the Northern Hemisphere fall means that

La Niña will begin to exert an increasing influence on the weather and

climate of the United States. Expected U.S. impacts include an enhanced

chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and

below-average precipitation across the southern tier of the country.

Also, La Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by

decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical

Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook). Conversely, La Niña is associated with suppressed hurricane activity across the central and eastern tropical North Pacific.
 
La Nina is going to be so epic. 6 feet of snow predicted in seattle. We had almost none last year. The mountains will be so insane
 
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