Batten down the hatches - El Nino is comming!!!

W

waynewong

Active member
Thats right fellow Norcal schlapers, a massive wave of storm systems is about to wreck havok across the sierra nevada. Two-week storm window of continuous pouning from high moisture, heavy duty Mike Tyson hitting storms.

Mark this snowdogs words - Heavy snow accumation above 7000-feet. probably 100+++ inches by December 18th.

Expect the carnage to begin this weekend -

 
hopefully your right cause Tahoe is defiantly dying due to the lack of snow on the ground right now. I just want a whole resort open by the time christmas break comes along
 
Dare I say it? I hope you're right and not "wong." I couldn't hold that one back man, mah baaaadd. Looks good though eh?
 
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Yeah, due to jet streams and sciency stuff the flow of AK storms pulls down towards the equator and norcal will get the business side. Which is awsome if your a skiier. Bad if you drive a honda.
 
as we know, due to the coriolis acceleration ocean currents in the northern hemisphere have a CW rotation, what generally happens, it( the storm) will continue to move toward the west coast of the united states(depending on the jet stream, locations of local high and low pressures), picking up moisture from the warm pacific waters,( which in el nino or ENSO( El nino southern oscillation) is warmer due to the reversal of atmospheric pressure in the western pacific. this reversal has several theoretical effects across the country, including wetter winters on the west coast!! why? becuase its easier for the storm system to pick up moisture from the warmer water...warm moist air rises. this can be bad for warmer rainy areas, becuase they die in massive mudslides, good for us becuase we can ski more. im gonna pass fluids for sure.
 
I have learned that the best forecasts come from the surfing community. This system is supposed to be a biggy. All the big wave guys are gearing up for a huge series of swell events. The first system due late this weekend and the bouys are already showing big seas. It is supposed to top out at 30++ feet.

The last time we had readings like that was April 15th last year, new years 2005, new years 2004 etc...

If I was a betting man, i would say go to kirkwood next week!
 
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA FRIDAY EVENING

AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE ABRUPTLY THIS

WEEKEND...BECOMING MUCH MORE ACTIVE...WITH MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING

ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST STORM

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA BY

FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE

SECOND STORM WILL PUSH IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT LAKE

LEVEL. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS...CAUSING LOW

VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING SNOW.

PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL OVER THE SIERRA PASSES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON

OR FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING EARLIER IN THE DAY TO AVOID

POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO YOUR

NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS

FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

 
^^^ see nic knows, apparanly some mech engineers i know weren't paying attension in their 100 level classes... that might be why they got destroyed on the last fluid mech test.....hahahah
 
Haven't yet seen the forecast from our weather service but the usual sources from NOAA are very vague in regards to snow amount. They all forecast a change in the weather but none of the discussions forecast snowfall amounts. The only source I've located that remotely makes a forecast says .5 to 1 inch of water equivelant is possible with a snow level of 7000ft. Up here on the summit they have been wrong with every snowlevel yet this year. They've also been totally wrong with the night time temps for the last week(even with the inversion forecasted..it's been averaging 10 deg warmer actually). I'm preparing for the worse which would be an inch of rain followed by colder temps and no inversion. There's an animated global composite satelite map that shows promising signs of what could come our way later next week however if you use your imagination to project out the storm tracks. At the risk however of being a Negative Nancy...I'll believe it when I see the snow on the mountain.
 
Yeah, geology? ME's dont take that civil shit. Are you kidding me? And lets not forget how bad I destroyed you two fluids tests ago.
 
So I've been watching that map and it looks just like you said. Warm at first, because it's spinning counter-clockwise bringing up all the warm air from the south. When the first wall is past us the winds will be coming down from the north. It also looks like its bringing in the moisture from the front behind it, which might increase the moisture for the cold part of the storm.?
 
Yeah man, what's up w/ NOAA this year? In previous seasons they were so on the money. I know last year they started slipping up a bunch. Now it seems they won't make any snowfall predictions till about 24 hours out. Even then, they're wrong. I remember I used to just ignore everything but the NOAA winter weather statements. Now they're about useless. Maybe a weather class would serve better.

I got $20 toward someone on here attending the class for all of our benefit. Takers?
 
wow this just tured into meterology 101 and andy is the teacher cause he actaully sounded smart for the first time in his life....latterrrr
 
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2753.htm

North Shore Hawaii is currently going off with 20-30 outer reef bombs -

Sorry but I just love watching the storms form and grow and travel across the globe. Possibly the best week of my life was following a major storm on Thanksgiving of 2003 from San Diego to Santa Cruz to Tahoe to Utah - Epic Sunset Cliffs at 7-10 feet - Huge/washed and fucking scary Middle Peak at 10-15 feet - waist deep and stable love at Alpine and even deeper but hectic slides at Brighton -

 
The problem is still finding all the right weather maps for the right area. You can find them for the us easy, but you need maps from the gulf of Alaska, pacific, south pacific and the artic airmass over the north pole. You need the pressure grids, current winds, moisture content. I cant seem to find these, they would really help. Any one have any links?
 
see the only problem with weather forcasting, is ultimately it is based on theories. yes many of these theories have been proven, or have solid backround in 100 years past history. this is why it seems like sometimes old timers can tell you whats going to happen, and the weather forcasters are like hell if we know. this is why they call it predicting. weather typically follows established patterns, but there will always be those freak storms that look like weak systems, pick up steam and dump 10 feet on tahoe in less then two weaks. so liefs right no need to get technical, just pray that the next one comes out of nowhere,we wont know what hit us.
 
Damn. It was cold when it wasn't snowing, and now that a fat storm comes I gets warm. For any of you guys in tahoe right now, hows it look. I've heard the storm started last night.
 
rain, up to like 8k. maybe lower now. I skied boreal in the rain today. This Friday through Sunday is looking real good though.
 
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