Stupid question
I can guarantee you that no state will go out of their way to conquer every state, including Alaska and Hawaii, so therefore there can be no single “winner”
The smaller states will quickly realize that they have no chance of winning on their own, and as a result will form alliances with larger, more powerful states.
I predict that three alliances will form: One will be made up of the midwest and east coast, with the capital being New York City; one will be the southern states, with the capital in Atlanta; and one made up of the states west of the Rocky Mountains, with the capital being in Seattle.
Alaska and Hawaii will choose to stay neutral, because they know that no state will go out of their way to attack them unless provoked.
The east coast/Midwest alliance will win through a long, defensive war. With the manufacturing power of Pennsylvania, the economic prosperity of New York, and the food production of the Midwest, no state will be able to keep the war effort strong as long as this group.
The New York alliance would control the continental states, and Alaska and Hawaii would form their own governments and go on as independent nations.