there isn't a right or wrong answer, it's a preference question. im your size and i have last years xl and im getting xl again this year. when i put just the jacket on with like shorts or something it's just below my knee caps, but when i ride it ends up sitting like 4 inches above my knees. although large is also much bigger than it needs to be, it'd feel uncomfortably small on me.
but measure your last jacket, chances are it's alot shorter than even the large, and then decide how much bigger you want this saga to be.