they are not a playoff team. not at all.
look at how the pats looked without brady and how the packers looked without rodgers last year.
or even how the texans now played the falcons or the eagles beat the giants.
above average teams can maintain their level somewhat. the colts just are too bad in every phase, not just offense. i know their D is build around playing with a lead and stuff, but they dont play well at all.
with manning they would have 4-5 wins, but not more. 1 guy does not make that difference and the colts were ready to be dethroned by the texans for a long time.
i remember reading a comment from an nfl personnel manager and he said that the colts have inferior depth at nearly any position. they only have manning, a legit receiving corps that was made better by manning, two pro bowl DEs. they dont have a good oline, let alone good oline depth. they dont have above average DTs, linebackers and defensive backs. they dont make plays on ST.
BOTTOM LINE: i would bet 10 bucks right now that the colts will not make the playoffs for the next 4 years. and they will surely monitor the whole manning situation. if there is the slightest doubt that manning cannot play, they will try to get a 1st rounder for him and say good bye. keeping him and luck (if thats what they want to do with the 1st overall pick) would generate problems. on every pick, every third incompletion, the whole stadium would cry for luck. just a bad situation. i would guess that they dump him and start new all over again, maybe even trading the 2 years worth of draft picks for luck.