Tahoe? Looking for Good News? Maybe...

WITH THE PACIFIC JET FINALLY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE...IT WILL GET A LOT WETTER OVER NORCAL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST WE MAY BE IN A WET...PCPN DEFICIT DENTING PATTERN...FOR ABOUT A WEEK...FROM THE 8TH THROUGH ABOUT THE 13TH. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXTENDED PACIFIC JET PATTERN AND THE PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET TYPICAL OF EL NINO. AMSU TPW CHART INDICATES A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE PHILLIPINES NEWD TO 30N/155W...WHICH THE GFS FORECASTS WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE JET FLOW. THIS "HOSE" BECOMES ORIENTED/FOCUSED INTO CA FROM THE 9TH THROUGH THE 11TH (UTC TIME) WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WAA LIFTING NEWD INTO CA FROM THE OMEGA-REX BLOCK ALONG 140W-145W. IT IS DURING THIS TIME WHEN THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED. WEAKER WAVES EXPECTED TO GIVE ADDITIONAL BRIEF PERIODS OF PCPN TO NORCAL INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF VALENTINE`S DAY.
 
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